2013 Industry Report: The Development Of Textile And Garment Industry Is Not Optimistic.

＜p＞　　据悉，我国＜a target="_blank" href="//www.sjfzxm.com/"＞＜strong＞纺织＜/strong＞＜/a＞＜a target="_blank" href="//www.sjfzxm.com/"＞服装＜/a＞行业下半年投资策略仍然遵循两条主线：第一，从12年下半年开始,纺织品服装制造业在行业整合基础上弱复苏,企业分化明显,其中印染行业整合相对明显,龙头企业受益较大;此外,14年国家可能推出棉花直补政策,有望降低棉花价格和缩小国内外棉价差,从而有利于纺服制造企业复苏,因此我们仍然建议下半年积极关注纺服制造龙头企业;第二，尽管我们判断13年上半年纺服消费底部到来,但复苏待明年,特别是相关上市公司连续2年牺牲负债表和现金流量表以修饰损益表,我们认为子板块下半年仍有风险,但从长期来看,建议适当关注优质个股调整带来的投资机会;＜/p＞

< p > the first half of the year, the textile a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > strong > clothing < /strong > /a > the basic changes of the industry were in line with the expectation, that is, the downstream demand of textile manufacturing sub industry was weak revived, the effect of industrial integration was effective, and the performance of the leading enterprises rose. In the first half of the year, the bottom of the textile and garment retail sub industry came, but it was difficult to improve during the year.

< p > printing and dyeing industry integration effect is relatively obvious: in the entire manufacturing industry chain, the integration of printing and dyeing links is relatively obvious. First, printing and dyeing enterprises are "big and small", the market elimination mechanism is effective; secondly, environmental protection requirements improve and restrict the development of small and medium-sized enterprises; finally, printing and dyeing have higher requirements for capital and technology, and the impact of capacity pfer is not large.

These made the printing and dyeing enterprises benefit greatly in the weak recovery; < /p >

It is suggested that attention should be paid to printing and dyeing leading enterprises. It is expected that the fundamentals will continue to improve slowly. < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > strong > cotton > /strong > /a > direct subsidy measures, which are expected to effectively reduce the cost of cotton textile enterprises and enhance the competitiveness of exports, will bring continuous investment opportunities to leading enterprises. The textile and garment retail sub sectors still have systematic risks of continuous deterioration of financial statements. In the second half of the year, there is no chance of improvement in the financial sector. It is expected that only trading opportunities exist in the sector. The price of chemical fiber prices in the first half of the year is low and the downstream demand is not optimistic. In the second half of the year, chemical fiber will usher in a price window in 7-8 months, and there may still be a wave band intervention opportunity. < p > still in the second half of the year.

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1) in the first half of the year, the retail sales of single month retail sales of all the major retail enterprises in China remained basically at a single digit level in the first half of the year, which was significantly lower than that in 2012. The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales was higher than that of 2012 due to frequent discount sales promotion; 2) the export data in the first half of 2013 were abnormal, and the reference significance was not significant. From the 5.29% growth rate of the single month export in May, exports maintained a weak recovery; < /p >

< p > it is understood that since the beginning of this year, the textile and garment sector has dropped by 12.25%, which is better than the big market (17.79% decline in Shenzhen index), showing a middle level in the various sub sectors; from the performance of the sub sectors, the textile sub sector performance is better than that of the clothing; from the perspective of individual stock performance, the top ten stocks are mainly concentrated in three categories, one is the theme stocks, the second is the leading enterprises in the chemical fiber industry, and the third category is the textile manufacturing leading enterprises benefiting from the weak recovery of downstream demand and the effective integration of industries.

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