China'S Domestic And Foreign Demand Is Good, Manufacturing Industry Needs Momentum.

China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) data released by the National Bureau of statistics and HSBC in August showed a sharp recovery, and all of them were on the line of prosperity and decline. P

As an internationally leading index to monitor the macroeconomic trend, does this indicate that China's economy has been out of the trough and has entered the rising channel? < /p >

P, an analyst interviewed by the international business daily, said that the increase in PMI in August was mainly due to seasonal demand improvement. China's economy was not completely out of the predicament, and the capacity to production had not yet been completed. Transformation and upgrading still had a long way to go. More reform policies were expected to be introduced on the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in November.

< /p >

< p > < strong > internal and external demand is good, manufacturing industry < /strong > < /p >

< p > "this shows that China's economy is now stabilizing and recovering, and it will usher in a phased improvement.

"Seeing the August PMI data released by the National Bureau of statistics, Wang Jianhui, deputy general manager of the securities research and development department, pointed out in an interview with an international business daily reporter.

< /p >

< p > statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics show that in August 2013, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry was 51%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over July, and for 11 consecutive months, it was above the critical point and the highest record in the year.

< /p >

< p > Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, said that the introduction and implementation of a series of steady growth, restructuring, promoting reform and improving people's livelihood in recent years has stabilized social expectations and boosted market confidence.

"The record breaking of PMI data in August is mainly due to demand improvement.

Wang Jianhui said that in August, when summer and autumn changed season, the demand for consumer goods such as "a target=" _blank "href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/ ">" clothing "/a" was large, and there were Halloween festivals in the second half of the year. Merchants needed to get the goods ready in advance, which would stimulate demand.

"This demand is reflected not only in China, but also in foreign countries.

"Wang Jianhui said that the recovery of the European and American economies has also provided space for the expansion of the external market.

< /p >

< p > indeed, judging from the sub index, the new order index of PMI sub index is 52.4%, up 1.8 percentage points from July, rising for the 2 consecutive month, the highest point in 16 months, and the strong support for the PMI recovery in August.

In addition, the production index was 52.6%, and the purchasing price index of raw materials was 53.2%, up 0.2 and 3.1 percentage points respectively from July.

< /p >

Prior to P, HSBC announced the PMI data of China's manufacturing industry in August, with a final value of 50.1, higher than the ups and downs, and a 2.4 percentage point increase over the July low of 47.7, ending the 3 month slowdown.

"The PMI index of manufacturing in August and the recent rise in HSBC manufacturing PMI index and the recovery of economic activity data indicate that the economic situation is improving.

Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JP Morgan, told the International Business Daily reporter.

< /p >

< p > < strong > economic uplink still needs power less than /strong > /p >

"P > PMI continues to pick up, and the increase is expanding. Does this mean that China's economy has gone out of the trough and entered the upstream channel?" this is only a phased improvement, which does not mean that China's economy has gone out of the trough.

"Wang Jianhui said that the future PMI data may also fluctuate in the 50%~54% range.

< /p >

< p > Wang Jianhui analysis shows that demand is the main reason for pulling PMI in August. From October to the end of this year, with the arrival of the rush hour for Christmas and Spring Festival, PMI is expected to reach a peak of about 54%.

But at the beginning of next year, when the consumption season is low, orders will be reduced, and PMI data may fall to the edge of the ups and downs.

< /p >

< p > of course, there are also favorable factors.

Wang Jianhui said that a series of economic reform and micro stimulation policies promulgated by the state in taxation, foreign trade, finance and Shanghai pilot free trade zone can not only enhance enterprise confidence, but also play a positive role in boosting the economy with the gradual development of the role.

< /p >

< p > however, analysts pointed out that from the PMI data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the PMI of large enterprises is picking up, and the PMI of medium-sized enterprises has stabilized.

Small business PMI is down, down 0.2 percentage points, to 49.2%.

Moreover, from the perspective of enterprises, the problem of excess capacity is still serious.

"Some of the big coal companies I have met are struggling, and their incomes can only keep their daily expenses waiting for the industry to get warmer.

"An industry watchdog said that once it fails to sustain itself, these overcapacity companies will face a new phase out.

"The impetus for China's next economic growth comes from institutional change.

"Zhu Baoliang, director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the state information center, told an international business daily reporter that, just as reform and opening up provided energy for China's economic development in the past 30 years, the post reform and opening up era still needs to be reformed and opened, and it needs to be more thorough, such as market access and environment of the camp are more equitable, the relationship between the government and enterprises is further optimized and adjusted, the favorable policies such as taxation are put in place, the reform of the financial industry, the rationalization of the real estate prices, and the development of information consumption.

< /p >