Overshoot Against Clothing And Textile Stocks

Investment suggestion Spin brand Clothes & Accessories The industry has been deeply adjusted for nearly 2 years, and the allocation of fund positions is at a historic low. Recently, a number of concepts are favorable, and the 4 quarter is expected to be oversold by the retail sector. Combined with ordering and three quarterly preview, sub industry boom ranking: jewelry, outdoor, textile, home textiles, leisure, women's wear, men's wear.

The reason is that we expect the industry's overall quarterly growth rate of 3 to be 7.1%, unchanged from the 8.3% growth rate in the first half of this year, and the inflection point still needs to wait. The performance of individual stocks has been differentiated.

1) performance is better than expected: Pathfinder (1-3 quarter +74.1%, excluding income tax adjustment effect +49%), +41% (brand name jewelry), Semir apparel (+17%).

2) less than expected performance: +17%, +16%, +12%, Roley (+1%), seven wolves (-9.2%), and birds of prey (-40%).

3) performance has maintained rapid growth or improvement: +49%, +42%, Lu Tai (+40%), Chao Hongji (+40%, Fion investment income table), Lao Fengxiang (+23%), Ming jewellery (+41%), Semir apparel (+17%), YOUNGOR (+7%, real estate business contribution).

4) performance is still deteriorating: -48%, -40%.

Fourth quarter Outlook: it is expected that leisure and other sub industry orders growth is expected to accelerate, terminal performance is still normal, valuation repair is the main driving force of stock prices.

1) channel and direct research show that the whole industry The channel inventory has basically been adjusted.

Take the United States for example, the company's stock size dropped from 3 billion to 1 billion 500 million. Many brands (such as Semir) channel and supplier survey shows that stock has returned to a reasonable level.

2) the three concept is expected to continue to heat up in the 4 quarter. Reform of state-owned enterprises: Lao Fengxiang; O2O develops better: Pathfinder, American bond, fuanna and seven wolves; Internet Finance: YOUNGOR (holding UnionPay business 5%) and Smith Barney (holding Changan fund 33%).

3) the relative allocation of funds and heavy positions have dropped to the lowest level in recent years, and are expected to rise again.

Earnings forecast and valuation as a whole, the industry's overfall counterattack has been launched and will continue. It is suggested that two types of companies should be concerned: 1) keep on improving: Lao Feng Xiang (2013 performance +22%, valuation 21.4 times), Pathfinder (+41%, 28.6 times), Lu Tai (+30%, 9.1 times), 2) overfall rebound: American Apparel (-31%, 22.6 times), Semir dress (18%, 19.3 times), seven wolves (-9%, 13.8 times), YOUNGOR (9%, 9% times) and fuanna (9%, 13.8 times).

Risk raw materials Price Fluctuations, terminal consumption continued to be weak.