Spot Exchange Rate Innovation Low Export Textile Enterprises Unspeakable Benefit

The RMB exchange rate has fallen below the key point of 6.25. According to the China foreign exchange trading center's quotation, the yuan fell to 0.06% against the US dollar in early trading in April 25th, and it was 6.2525 yuan. At the end of the month, the renminbi was again hit the lowest point of 6.2583 against the US dollar at 6.2536. 6.2583 also set the lowest intraday price since December 12, 2012.

The spot exchange rate of RMB has been depreciating since late February, and the cumulative depreciation rate has exceeded 3% so far. What is the impact of RMB devaluation on China's exports? In theory, currency devaluation is beneficial to a country's exports. But for now, this benefit is not evident either from macro data or from the micro enterprise level.

According to China Customs statistics, imports and exports, imports and exports all fell year-on-year in the first quarter of this year. In March, exports also continued the trend of negative growth in one month, far below the industry's expectations. Industry analysis shows that the high base number in the same period last year led to a sharp decline in export growth in March. At the same time, the real effective exchange rate of RMB has increased considerably since the second half of last year, which has also been a drag on exports. Although the effective exchange rate of RMB has depreciated significantly in February this year, its positive role has not been shown because of its lagging impact on exports.

Specific to the exchange rate sensitive. foreign trade enterprise For example, the effect of RMB devaluation is "mixed with joy and sorrow". The economic reference Daily reporter recently interviewed in the 119th Canton Fair found that the recent devaluation of RMB is helpful to some export industries and some enterprises, but it is not obvious for some large and medium-sized enterprises that import large scale.

"At the beginning of this year RMB Devaluation is good for our exports. " Wang Lili, deputy general manager of Shenzhen yanjialong Industrial Development Co., Ltd., said that we and our customers have generally reached an agreement on exchange rate floating system. In the contract, we have stipulated that during the execution period of the contract, the exchange rate will fluctuate within 2% of our own consumption, and 2% will be borne by customers.

Most businesses say " appreciation It is the reality that the depreciation has impact and the effects are interlaced and complex. Zhou Qi, director of marketing division of SKYWORTH, said that the exchange rate had a great impact on the operation of enterprises. The appreciation of the renminbi at the end of last year was relatively large, and the exchange rate loss was relatively large, reaching a maximum of 26 million yuan in one quarter. At the beginning of this year, the depreciation of the RMB made up for the loss, but for the domestic market, it was disadvantageous because it led to an increase in procurement costs. "While SKYWORTH has a larger share of the domestic market, we prefer to revalue the renminbi in terms of internal and external sales, which is helpful to domestic sales."

Guangdong Shunde CREE electric appliance company produces household and commercial coffee machines. Yuan Bin, general manager of the company, said that because the core parts such as pumps and grinding tools must be imported and imported products account for more than 20% of the cost of products, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has directly affected the profits of the enterprises. Estimated, the depreciation of this year has at least reduced profits by 3-4 percentage points.

Sun Shubao, director of the European market of Qingdao Haier group, said that for the 24 factories in the world, whether the renminbi appreciates or depreciates, the market effect is extremely complex. It can not be simply considered that "depreciation of the RMB can stimulate exports".

"Like other multinationals, we need to send products from Thailand factories to Europe or to bring India factory products to Africa. For the current stage of "made in China", we can not rely solely on the depreciation of the renminbi to seek profits. He said.

In this regard, some experts said that from one-way appreciation to two-way fluctuations, it seems to be good for enterprises, but has increased the difficulty of forecasting corporate settlements. Larger enterprises, with larger pricing power, tend to lock in the exchange rate of production. The price of export orders of previous foreign trade enterprises is determined on the expectation of appreciation of the exchange rate, and the current RMB exchange rate change is exactly the opposite of what was originally expected. Therefore, the depreciation of the renminbi has caused losses to large foreign trade enterprises. Not only that, the exchange rate changes may also affect the orders in the second half of the year.