Are We Overestimating Ali Or Are We Underestimating BT?

As the most concerned IPO in recent and future years,

The impact of listing on the capital market is gradually emerging, and the NASDAQ index fell by 1.07% on the US time on Monday. Technology stocks and stocks have been lying in arms. Investors are clearly preparing for the listing of Alibaba.

And from the outflow of information, Ali raised its ADS pricing range, from 60 to 66 US dollars to 66 to 68 U.S. dollars, the reason is in the road show process capital market to Ali's pursuit.

After the increase, Ali's valuation also reached $174 billion 900 million.

The question is, compared with the recent market value of about $150 billion and Baidu 75 billion, does not Ali, including the small and micro financial businesses, be overestimated? Or does the capital market underestimate the value of Tencent and Baidu? Especially the latter, although there has been a big rally in the early July, there is still some unreasonable market gap between Ali and Ali.

Present situation

From the earnings report of the three companies in the two quarter alone, Ali's profit margin is surprisingly high, and it seems that it can afford such a high valuation.

But in fact,

The two quarter claimed a net growth of 6 billion 251 million (about US $1 billion 8 million) related to the shareholders' equity previously held by the group, mainly due to mergers and acquisitions between UCWeb and OneTouch. It is clear that it is hard for us to have such a profitable report in the future.

However, it can not be denied that the main businesses of the three companies determine their tycoons to a certain extent. Baidu's search advertising, Tencent games, and Ali's e-commerce platform are very good in terms of profitability.

But the difference is that the outbreak of the e-commerce market, which is dependent on Ali's high-speed growth, may be ending. Alibaba group's GMV (paction scale) reached 501 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2014. The main driving force for its growth is 50.8% growth in the number of buyers.

Many users who have no online shopping habits are being pformed into electronic business users, but the growth of this figure is easy to encounter bottlenecks.

According to the CNNIC report, there are 332 million online shopping users in China, and the utilization rate of Internet users has exceeded 50%.

In addition, the vertical electricity supplier gradually out of the cold winter, the market scale continues to expand, Ali's growth in the electricity business itself is a lot of doubt, especially in the mobile Internet era, the increasingly diversified payment scenarios, so that more and more products are gradually having the electricity supplier genes. Tencent and Baidu are also spared no effort to promote their own third party payment tools, seeking to rely on offline scenes to develop O2O, limiting Ali's pformation from online providers to online and offline integration of life service providers.

While Baidu and Tencent's main business search advertising and games in the PC end to the mobile terminal pition process is smoother, the former announced in the Q2 earnings report mobile income share of more than 30%, while the number of Tencent and Ali are only 15% and 12% (reported that the two quarter of Ali, the figure is 19.4%), mobile search capabilities are increasing, and even the home of easy cars and cars for Baidu plan Aladdin fight, eventually a PC, a mobile thing.

After the acquisition of 91, Baidu's advantage in application distribution has gradually emerged. The number of APP users with 14 subscribers has accounted for at least the number.

Tencent is also very strong in mobile terminals. WeChat and Q have 400 million and 500 million monthly active users respectively, while Ali mobile Taobao has only 188 million month active users, which is weaker than mobile Baidu's 200 million.

The social game itself is a very strong logical link, which makes Tencent in the field of hand travel has an incomparable user base, which also promoted the growth of its game business in the off-season 7% in the two quarter.

It can be said that in the mobile terminal, Baidu and

The original business can still maintain a strong independent revenue capability, but for Ali, the impact of the mobile Internet may be more on its overall ecological promotion.

Future layout

Of course, I also believe that the impact of continuous technological iteration on the business structure, and good profitability does not necessarily mean that the future will still be its era, such as YAHOO once, now Microsoft.

Share price is also a reflection of the future value of a company, but sometimes it is also a feedback to a good story.

In the future layout, Ma Yun is definitely a storytelling man, making it seem that Ali, who looks closest to money, has eaten the cake.

But the fact seems to be corroborate my previous judgement. Ali's previous acquisition and acquisition by Bibi made Ali's two sports car very beautiful, but on the runway there was a lack of motivation and even risk of falling apart.

At present, Sina micro-blog, which was placed with high hopes, now looks more like a window. The so-called social business is far from being expected.

Prior to the Baidu map, Google map of the resistance of the High German, now can only watch old rival Baidu grabbed more than half of the market share.

As for UC, in addition to Shenma search, there is not much action, and it is not easy to do too much evaluation.

Finally, Ali's "future ecosystem" is more or less built by itself, and Alipay wallet is the core of this ecosystem. (Alipay wallet belongs to the small micro finance is not included in the scope of Ali IPO).

As the link between O2O and offline, the payment is the most adaptable and the most necessary part of the whole paction process. It also gives Ali more chance on O2O.

Similarly, Tencent and Baidu also have such a possibility. Tencent has just released a smart life solution and updated the wallet function in the new version of WeChat to further strengthen payment.

Although there is not much connection between social networking and O2O and payment, the high user base, high usage rate and multi use scenarios determine that WeChat can promote this relationship.

Baidu launched a direct number in Baidu world. On the one hand, it wanted to improve the conversion capability of mobile search traffic. On the other hand, it cut into the trillions of dollars of traditional industries from the perspective of search and map.

After the completion of the Internet extension from PC to mobile Internet, the next exploding point of the Internet economy has fallen more and more in the surrounding world of pforming people and people's lives.

A great representative is the O2O market, which is in full swing. Another focus is the rising smart device.

In this market, Ali obviously has a certain gap with Baidu and Tencent.

Baidu, a few years ago, took out the Baidu cloud in the Baidu world and wanted to build a wearable device technology from the technology, and now it has a product like Picooc, a commercialized product such as Gudong, and the concept of BaiduEye and chopsticks.

Tencent hopes to build a platform from another point of view based on WeChat's social networking system. Previously, the combination of many smart bracelets is only a start. Due to the existence of WeChat, Tencent's access to smart device ecology is not a difficult task.

In contrast, Ali, which is more valued by the capital market, is good at this aspect.

Calm down, Ali's IPO feels more like a carnival in the capital market, and magnify it through the media hotpot which is so eager for the hot spot that it will coerce millions of benevolence.

But those who really get real gold and silver may only have those who ring the bell and the gold masters behind them. For most people, everything is like a play.

If we take the valuation of Ali as a coordinate, then Baidu and Tencent may be underestimated, especially the former.

But if Baidu's market value is considered as a rational value coordinate, the bubble in the Internet market may actually become bigger and bigger because of the listing of Ali.