The Path And Strategy Of Economic Growth Shifting Period

In order to cope with the challenges of economic growth, the unreasonable distribution of income and the heavy burden of resources and energy environment, China must draw lessons from international experience to determine the path and strategy for speeding up the shift.

　　 Challenges

In 2001, China's per capita GDP exceeded 1000 dollars. In 2014, China's per capita GDP will exceed 7000 dollars. In the next few years, China will continue to move towards the high income stage, but it will also face pressure from economic growth momentum, income distribution and resources and environment constraints.

First, economic growth The power is fading. From the point of view of production factors, the "demographic dividend" has been declining and labor costs continue to rise. In 2012, the labor force of the 16 year old ~59 year old in China decreased by 3 million 450 thousand, and in 2013, it was further reduced by 2 million 440 thousand. From the perspective of demand structure, Investment High growth is becoming more and more difficult, and the pattern of dependence on exports is difficult to sustain. The export oriented characteristics of domestic investment are quite obvious, and large-scale export leads to large surplus, and domestic and foreign economies are becoming increasingly unbalanced. Therefore, China faces greater international pressure. From the perspective of technological content, independent innovation capability is insufficient, and the scientific and technological content of economic growth needs to be improved. In 2012, the strength of R & D in China was far behind that in the United States and Japan. The proportion of R & D funds in the industrial enterprises above Designated Size accounted for a relatively low proportion of main business income.

Secondly, the pattern of residents' income distribution is unreasonable. The current pattern of China's residents' income distribution is the result of a series of economic development factors and institutional reform factors since the reform and opening up. In recent years, the proportion of high-income residents whose per capita income is more than 24000 yuan has increased from 2.6% in 2002 to 18.7% in 2010. The proportion of middle and high income groups has gradually expanded to the proportion of low-income groups, accelerating the evolution of China's income distribution pattern to the "Pyramid type". The "Pyramid type" income distribution pattern is not ideal, which corresponds to a larger income gap, which is different from the olive pattern proposed in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee. The Gini coefficient increased from 0.3023 in 1978 to 0.4615 in 2010. The income gap between urban and rural areas also expanded to varying degrees.

Third, resources, energy and environment are overburdened. In terms of energy, China is the second largest energy consumer in the world. The energy consumption per unit GDP is higher than that of most developed countries, and also higher than that of emerging economies such as Korea, Singapore and India. In terms of resources, from the per capita mineral resources, China's mineral resources are relatively scarce, especially the amount of strategic mineral resources per capita is far below the world average level, and the supply of domestic mineral resources is difficult to meet the demand. Environment, in recent years, China's air, water, solid waste and other pollution problems are becoming more and more prominent. About 1/3 of the urban population is exposed to the air pollution exceeding standard, and about 190 million people have excessive drinking water harmful substances.

　　 Three paths

In order to successfully pass the economic growth shift period and quickly cross the middle-income trap, China should pay more attention to maintaining a relatively fast economic growth in the coming years, paying more attention to raising the income level of the residents, and paying more attention to adhering to the road of common prosperity.

First, we need to maintain rapid economic growth and achieve the goal of doubling GDP in 2020. The eighteen identified the grand goal of double GDP in 2020 and then building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way in 2020. Achieving this goal requires that the average annual growth rate of GDP in 2014 GDP will reach 6.7%. If the per capita GDP exceeded 12000 US dollars in 2021, the average annual growth rate of ~2021 GDP per capita in 2014 will reach 7.3% in 2014. In 2023, the average value of US $GDP per capita will exceed US $12000.

The two is to raise the income level of residents and keep the growth of income synchronized with economic development. The eighteen party proposed that by 2020, the per capita income of urban and rural residents would be doubled than that in 2010, that is, the so-called "income doubling plan" in China. This requires that while the economy is developing fairly fast, the government and enterprises should make profits to ensure that the remuneration of workers and the rapid growth of residents' incomes are guaranteed. The calculation shows that to achieve the goal of doubling the per capita income of urban and rural residents in 2020 than in 2010, the per capita disposable income growth rate of urban residents in 2014 ~2020 will reach 6.7%, while the per capita net income growth rate of rural residents needs to reach 5.8%.

Three, we must adhere to the path of common prosperity and form an ideal olive income distribution pattern. Both the eighteen and the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee stressed that "we must adhere to the path of common prosperity" and "form an olive like income distribution pattern". However, the current pattern of income distribution in China is more biased towards the Pyramid type, and there is still a big gap from the olive distribution pattern. To achieve the ideal olive income distribution pattern, we must first establish on the basis of sustained economic development, and secondly, cultivate a large number of middle-income groups. This needs to be achieved in a relatively long period of time by promoting economic growth and adjusting the distribution system and policies.

　　 Five strategies

Under the new normal, the environment and conditions facing China's economy are undergoing tremendous changes. This requires timely revaluation and adjustment of strategy, scientific and rational formulation of policies, careful handling of contradictions and risks in the development process, and breakthroughs in deepening reform, transformation and upgrading, and improving distribution.

First, deepen Structural reform Handle the relationship between the government and the market well. We should improve the modern market system, straighten out the price relations among various elements, speed up the construction of social credit system, perfect market regulations and regulatory systems, standardize market order, reduce transaction costs, and move towards "zero cost economy". We must work hard to build a public service oriented government, perfect the market supervision mechanism and guarantee mechanism, ensure that the examination and approval authority of cancellation and decentralization is not going through the motions, relax the entry threshold of some industries, and enable the private sector to enjoy the same fair competition opportunities with the state. We should strengthen the construction of the public service system, pay more attention to basic livelihood services and public welfare basic services, and establish a cooperation mechanism between the government and enterprises, institutions, non-governmental organizations and community service organizations, so as to raise the level of social management.

Second, speed up transformation and upgrading, and foster a new driving force for sustained economic growth. In the process of synchronizing the "new four modernizations", we should stimulate the potential of urbanization to stimulate growth and speed up the biggest structural adjustment of new urbanization with the core of man. In the process of optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure, we should create new industries that are leading growth. We should find and cultivate new industries that have positive effects on employment, income, development and rational utilization of resources. In promoting the quality and efficiency of economic growth in the process of vigorously promoting independent innovation, we must further deepen the reform of the scientific and technological system, accelerate the transformation of traditional industries by using new and high technology, and strengthen the creation, application and protection of intellectual property rights. In the process of promoting regional coordinated development, we should give full play to the late development advantages of the central and western regions. We should put the strategy of in-depth implementation of the western development in the priority position of the overall regional development strategy and enhance the self-development capacity of the less developed areas. In consolidating the weak links, we must consolidate the foundation of steady economic growth, accelerate the reform of household registration system, reform the land expropriation system, promote the coordinated development of urban and rural integration, and help small and micro enterprises to solve the problem of financing difficulties and reduce their tax burden.

Third, rational and orderly distribution, and gradually form an olive type distribution pattern. On the one hand, we should straighten out the distribution relationship of national income, gradually increase the proportion of residents' income in distribution, and prevent the widening of income gap among residents. On the other hand, giving play to the moderating effect of redistribution is the guarantee for improving income distribution. We should reconstruct the personal income tax system according to the principle of combination of classification and synthesis, gradually levy property tax, appropriately regulate excessive income and establish a fair social security system.

Fourth, we should improve our social undertakings and achieve the fruits of development shared by the people. We should establish and improve social undertakings, promote equalization of basic public services and create a shared economy. Improving social undertakings is mainly from two aspects: first, we should continue to increase investment, expand coverage and fields; two, we should take effective measures to improve the level and quality of social security. The development of education is the basis of scientific and technological progress and independent innovation. This requires China to further improve the quality of education and fair opportunities on the basis of further investment in education. At the same time, we must improve the employment system and employment conditions, improve the pension system and develop the pension industry, improve the medical insurance system, protect the living conditions of low-income people, and pay attention to the timely adjustment of family planning and retirement policies, and comprehensively improve the living standard and happiness of the residents.

Fifth, create a livable environment and promote green and low-carbon sustainable development. China's economic capacity, industry, population and environmental carrying capacity require that resource conservation and environmental protection should be considered in the future development. Resource conservation requires that industrial development and social progress should be guided by intensive development, while environmental protection emphasizes that industrial development is not based on serious environmental degradation. We should fulfill our international responsibilities and commitments, promote green, circular and low-carbon development, rely on technological innovation, intensify environmental governance, and speed up the development of energy saving and environmental protection industries. To determine the guiding and restricting mechanism of tax revenue for energy conservation and emission reduction, select the right time to introduce environmental protection tax, and pilot the high carbon consumption and high polluting enterprises to collect carbon emissions per unit GDP.