Why Can The Economic Slowdown Not Prevent The Stock Market From Rising?

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 10.7% in the 1-2 months of 2015, fixed asset investment grew by 13.9% over the same period, and real estate development investment increased by 10.4% compared to the same period last year, and the industrial added value increased by 6.8% over the same period last year. These data are not only lower than market expectations, and investment growth has reached a new low of at least 13 years, and industrial production growth has also reached a 6 year low. That is to say, since the second half of 2014, the kinetic energy of China's economic growth has not weakened, and China's real estate, infrastructure and manufacturing investment has been sluggish.

The most important reason for the current downturn in China's economic growth is the continuing downturn in the real estate market. From the data released recently by the National Bureau of statistics, residential sales area and sales decreased by 17.8% and 16.7% respectively in the 1-2 months of this year, and the sales area of commercial housing increased by 24.4% over the same period last year. The land acquisition area of real estate enterprises decreased by 31.7% compared with the negative growth rate in 2014. Moreover, even the first tier cities in China are facing more and more risks in the real estate market. For example, the stock market in the market is at a record high. In the past month, not only the housing market has been declining, but also the overall volume and price of second-hand housing has been decreasing. For China's "real estate" economy, the real estate market is sluggish. How can the pressure on China's economic growth downward?

However, despite the increasing pressure on China's economic growth, the Chinese stock market has not been affected, but on the contrary, it has been developing towards a better direction and its share price is getting higher and higher. This is a bit like Germany and Japan. The stock market in Germany has been at a record high recently, and Japan's stock market is out of its predicament for 15 years. Similarly, the economic growth of the two countries is not very good either. China's stock market is also taking the lead. Why?

As I pointed out at the beginning of the year, there will be little change in the direction of China's stock market in 2015. Since the government is doing more of the Chinese stock market, it is natural not only to have more exports in terms of speech, but also to increase the market confidence of the Chinese stock market, and there will be more policies for the Chinese stock market.

For example, recently, President Zhou Xiaochuan was right at the press conference. equity market There is a clear trend in China's stock market. Because the views of President Zhou are not necessarily established in experience or theory under the background of current China, that is, capital flows into the stock market to support the real economy. But President Zhou Xiaochuan openly expressed his views at the press conference of the two sessions, which also showed the government's tendency to do more. I think if the central bank has such a tendency to do more Chinese stock market, then the central bank's monetary policy may be tilted on many Chinese stock markets. For example, the domestic stock market rose again yesterday and hit a 5 year high. Market expectations The central bank will cut interest rates in real time. In particular, some people believe that the current deposit reserve ratio in China will be reduced to 19.5% at the level of other countries, and there is still a chance to reduce it. However, not many people will see how China's deposit reserve rate is different from that of other countries. Now that the central bank has cut interest rates and gradually cut interest rates, it will be the most advantageous for the stock market. In 2009, the US Standard & Poor's index increased from 666 to 2100. Federal Reserve Monetary policy continues to be loose. But the stock market in the US can rise quickly, and the real economy is really better in the last one or two years. Therefore, the market does not care about the real economy either. As long as the government does more stock markets, the stock market can also skyrocket.

Similarly, at the press conference of the two sessions, the prime minister also thought that the pressure of China's economic growth downward in 2015 was not small, but the prime minister also had confidence in China's future economic development. If China's economy had a bigger downward trend, then the government could have many tools to use, and the market would not have to worry too much. For example, this year's two sessions pointed out the concept of Internet +, China made 2025, one belt, one way, Beijing Tianjin Hebei coordinated development, the Yangtze River economic belt, free trade zone, going out strategy, energy conservation and environmental protection, state-owned enterprise reform and so on. I believe there will be more detailed policies in the coming period. This has given us a lot of daydream about China's stock market, which naturally creates many concepts for the rise of China's stock market. Under such circumstances, it is natural for stock market investors to enter the market.

In short, in view of the current stock market in China, although the pressure of domestic economic growth downward is not small, investors see more government's policy tendency to do more stock market, see that China's economy will move towards a good trend, and stock market investors want to grow faster in wealth in the short run, which has become the driving force of the current stock market in China.