The Consequences Of Greece'S Return To Europe Can Not Predict The Market Or Compromise.

Greece recapitulation or final compromise

Six years after the Greek crisis, the weak economic trend made Greece still unable to repay its debts. "Greece's withdrawal from Europe" has once again become a bomb in the international market.

Greece and the European Union and the International Monetary Fund will discuss the delay in repayment of international investors' loans this week, otherwise Greece will face default on Tuesday because it can not repay the 1 billion 600 million euros repayment of the IMF on the 30 day.

However, the Greek side has rejected international creditors' offer of extending 15 billion 500 million euros to Greece over the next 5 months, saying that too little aid could lead to a recession.

Greek Prime Minister Qi Plath commended the 5 month plan put forward by international creditors as "extortion" and said it would launch a referendum on the aid agreement between Greece and its creditors. The referendum was scheduled for July 5th.

Before the referendum, some people began to queue up for withdrawals in banks because they were worried about capital controls in Greece.

The Greek banking sector is also facing a run crisis which complicates Greece's debt negotiations.

Decline in Greece's retreat to Europe

In the face of Greece's default, it may be international.

Peace of mind this week.

In the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500 index fell slightly by 0.5% compared with last week.

Chris, the managing director of C.C.Trading trading company, said to Tencent financial, "every few years Greece will renegotiate the terms of loans with international creditors, and let the situation look as if Greece's European economy will be destroyed once Greece returns to Europe.

But this is not the case. "

In June 2012, when Greece said that it could not repay its debts, Germany had assessed the cost of "Greece's withdrawal from Europe". At that time, the result of the discussion was that Greece's withdrawal from the euro area was higher than the financial cost of maintaining Greece in the euro area, but 3 years later, the position of the euro zone countries including Germany changed.

Finland finance minister Alexander Stubb (Alexander Stubb) said in the Greek negotiation process, "we should do everything we can to keep Greece in the euro zone.

But frankly speaking, we can't afford to pay no attention to costs.

Clay Doak said that compared with three years ago, the euro zone has increasingly adapted to the possibility of Greece's withdrawal from the euro zone.

In fact, because of Greece's weak economy and debt disputes with international creditors, the deterioration of the investment environment has made private sectors or other countries private sectors.

Automatic cutting with Greece.

Whether it is loans to Greek companies or the ability of Greek banks to absorb overseas savings are falling sharply.

"Will Greece withdraw from the euro and become the European version of the Lehman era? I don't think so."

Alberto Gallo, a Alberto Gallo analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland, said, "the exposure of foreign financial institutions in Greece is very small."

This is also evident from the ten year treasury bond changes in Spain and Italy.

Three years ago, when Greece renegotiated the bond agreement, the yield of ten - year treasury bonds in Spain and Italy would soar, even to 7%.

However, in the current round of negotiations, the ten year treasury bonds in Spain and Italy are basically stable.

The international market expects the last second to save.

Though from a financial point of view,

The conductivity is weakening, but analysts point out that once Greece returns to Europe, the larger chain reaction will probably happen in the political arena, which is also the concern of other countries in the euro zone.

When Chiara Poos campaigned for the Greek prime minister, he promised voters that he would negotiate with the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to reduce Greece's debts of up to 320 billion euros.

After the official election, Chiara Poos linked the debt relief to Greece and the external bullying that Greece once suffered.

He said, "Greece has announced its bid to bid farewell to the catastrophic tightening policy, to say goodbye to fear and authoritarianism, and to say goodbye to the humiliation and suffering of five years."

After he took office, he presented flowers to the Greek soldiers and monuments killed by the Nazis at the first time.

Chiara Poos's tough attitude towards international creditors has also encouraged the "anti deflationist" populism in the euro area to continue to rise.

When the high unemployment rate caused by the austerity and economic reform has put pressure on the ruling parties in many European countries, populist parties under the banner of opposing the austerity policy have sprang up in Europe and even spread to European powers such as Germany and France.

Patrick King, a New York stock exchange trader, told Tencent finance that the leading role of Greece has always been the greatest fear of euro zone leaders.

In particular, if Greece quit the eurozone, the increase in the economy will bring greater pressure on the political parties in Italy or other countries.

"So the international market still feels at the last minute, Greece and

They will compromise with each other and come to some sort of agreement.

Once Greece withdraws, it will become a classic reference case in the euro area, and it will also indicate a certain degree of failure in euro area integration.

This situation is still not allowed in Germany today.