The Renminbi Has Begun To Stir Again.

The low deviation of the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rate since the Spring Festival has been broken this week, and the shorting up of offshore shores has heated up.

However, for regulators, the stable environment that is hard to create will not be left behind, and will continue to maintain enough deterrent against the bears, and actively cultivate market supply and demand and enhance exchange rate flexibility.

In fact, whether offshore RMB or offshore RMB, it is only two kinds of price of a currency. Because of market segmentation and other reasons, the offshore CNH has often deviated from the price since the launch of the offshore market in October 2011, and the institutions that have two market operations at the same time become the main force of arbitrage, including banks, multinational enterprises and so on.

However, analysts pointed out that although the RMB pricing mechanism is clear and pparent than before, and the RMB exchange rate index has also played a role as a filter and stabilizer, the pricing mechanism does not take into account the impact of offshore markets. If the spread of spreads between two places can cover the scope of arbitrage costs, arbitrage pactions may rise again, which in turn will increase the expected depreciation of the renminbi on shore.

"Now the price difference has been widened. It has not been seen since the Spring Festival. This is quite prominent. Offshore (Offshore) is still a little empty. If we continue to go on like this, it's not very good. Let's see if the regulation will be ready."

One foreign trader said.

The latest survey released by Reuters shows that over the past two weeks, most emerging Asian currencies have lost popularity, which is mainly attributable to the slowdown in global economic growth.

Among them, China

The empty warehouse bet has risen to the highest level since mid 2, worrying that the strong rebound in economic activity in March may not be sustained.

The survey also noted that China's economic data released so far in April and the weak results of the factory activity show that the economic outlook is even more sluggish.

In addition, the increase in corporate debt in China has aggravated concerns about economic and financial stability.

When offshore price is higher than onshore, it will increase the appreciation pressure on the shore. On the contrary, if the FOB price is lower than the onshore price, it will increase the devaluation pressure on the shore; after the 8.11 exchange reform last year, it will appear.

The price difference, which was substantially lower than that on the shore, expanded to more than 1300 at the beginning of this year, the largest level ever recorded.

Of course, many analysts also pointed out that many policy measures after the reform last year are still effective, and the space of arbitrage has been greatly reduced. However, as long as offshore is in a "unstable" state, it will naturally affect the sentiment on the shore.

It is really necessary to narrow the price gap at the right time, or to suppress the offshore depreciation space, or to relax the devaluation of the shore, or both.

Therefore, we believe that regulators will not let the bears go wild, because once the depreciation is expected to re ignite and affect the market stability, it will be too costly to stabilize again.

"Now everyone's eyes are on onshore and offshore, and I think the central bank will not let spread grow.

Because when spread reaches 4-500 points, it will not only see arbitrage but also attract more people's attention.

The foregoing foreign investment bank trader said.

However, despite the eventual defeat of several rounds of competition with the Central Bank of China, the stability of the renminbi also consumed a huge amount of foreign exchange reserves.

China's foreign reserves fell by more than US $400 billion after the 8.11 yuan reform last year triggered a marked depreciation of the yuan.