Spring March, PTA Prices Welcome Warm Current

Entering the March, the PTA price was developing in a crazy way. Under the spring, the PTA price also welcomed the warm current.

It is undoubtedly good news that China lowered the value-added tax rate and reduced the current 16% tax rate to 13%.

The help of commodity market funds and the gradual recovery of terminal demand are the main factors of PTA's rise.

Figure 12019 PTA spot market price chart

As of March 7th, the PTA spot market price was 6800 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.26% over the same period last month, an increase of 17.04% over the same period last year.

The sharp rise in prices has also led to a boom in downstream polyester production and marketing. It can be seen that the traditional idea of "buying up but not buying" still occupies the main mindset of the industry.

Post market overhaul has also surfaced, involving maintenance capacity up to 16 million 715 thousand tons in 3-5.

But there are still some parts of the existing repair possibilities, such as: Yizheng chemical fiber, Yisheng Ningbo and Yanda grand device, according to the expected calculation of maintenance, it is estimated that the output in March will fluctuate at 3 million 600 thousand tons.

But Sichuan's energy chemical industry (Sichuan Shengda) is expected to be put into operation at the end of March. If it can be put into production on schedule, there will be an incremental risk of supply.

Table 1 PTA schedule maintenance device list

The polyester start-up rate gradually recovered. As of March 7th, the start-up load of polyester was 86.37%, which was 9.11 percentage points higher than the pre commencement rate.

If the average operating rate of polyester in March is near 88%, the output of polyester will be estimated at around 3 million 500 thousand tons, and PTA will only have a slight accumulation of storage. If the rate of production is calculated at 90%, the output of polyester is expected to be 3 million 600 thousand tons, and the balance of supply and demand will appear in the PTA market.

Overall, the phenomenon of PTA heavy storage in March was gone, and the supply and demand side was gradually moving towards a favorable position.

What remains to be closely watched is the new order form of weaving.

In March, textile orders were more popular than before the Spring Festival. The new orders did not increase significantly, and the recent price rise and the hot selling and selling were affected by the psychological effect of "buying up or not buying down", and the downstream was also passive replenishment.

As a result, after the low inventory of polyester, whether it is digested or pferred, there is still a doubt, but it is sure that the decline of polyester stocks has obviously reached a reasonable level.

On the whole, as the PTA maintenance plan emerges gradually, there is a possibility of top down in supply, especially in the aftermarket, Hengli and Fuhai set up maintenance. If any other devices are overhauled, the base will continue to rise.

Demand side started gradually recovering, especially in the two quarter, there are still 1 million 600 thousand tons of new production plan, demand side will show an increasing trend, the PTA rate has been set, the supply and demand game is intense, crude oil is still a time bomb.

The market continued to pay close attention to crude oil and new orders for terminals.